2024-12-16 21:34:48 -05:00
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2024-11-10 16:43:02 -05:00
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > from< / span > < span class = "token plain" > bokeh< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > plotting < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > figure< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > output_notebook< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > show< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > from< / span > < span class = "token plain" > bokeh< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > palettes < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > PuBuGn9 < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > as< / span > < span class = "token plain" > Palette< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pandas < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > as< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > numpy < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > as< / span > < span class = "token plain" > np< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > from< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pickle< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" style = display:inline-block > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > output_notebook< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < br > < / span > < / code > < / pre > < div class = buttonGroup__atx > < button type = button aria-label = "Copy code to clipboard" title = Copy class = clean-btn > < span class = copyButtonIcons_eSgA aria-hidden = true > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonIcon_y97N > < path fill = currentColor d = "M19,21H8V7H19M19,5H8A2,2 0 0,0 6,7V21A2,2 0 0,0 8,23H19A2,2 0 0,0 21,21V7A2,2 0 0,0 19,5M16,1H4A2,2 0 0,0 2,3V17H4V3H16V1Z" / > < / svg > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonSuccessIcon_LjdS > < path fill = currentColor d = M21,7L9,19L3.5,13.5L4.91,12.09L9,16.17L19.59,5.59L21,7Z / > < / svg > < / span > < / button > < / div > < / div > < / div >
< div class = "codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-text codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > BokehJS successfully loaded.< / span > < br > < / span > < / code > < / pre > < div class = buttonGroup__atx > < button type = button aria-label = "Copy code to clipboard" title = Copy class = clean-btn > < span class = copyButtonIcons_eSgA aria-hidden = true > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonIcon_y97N > < path fill = currentColor d = "M19,21H8V7H19M19,5H8A2,2 0 0,0 6,7V21A2,2 0 0,0 8,23H19A2,2 0 0,0 21,21V7A2,2 0 0,0 19,5M16,1H4A2,2 0 0,0 2,3V17H4V3H16V1Z" / > < / svg > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonSuccessIcon_LjdS > < path fill = currentColor d = M21,7L9,19L3.5,13.5L4.91,12.09L9,16.17L19.59,5.59L21,7Z / > < / svg > < / span > < / button > < / div > < / div > < / div >
< p > I'm originally from North Carolina, and I've been hearing a lot of people talking about how often it's been raining recently. They're excited for any day that has sun.< / p >
< p > So I got a bit curious: Has North Carolina over the past few months actually had more cloudy and rainy days recently than in previous years? This shouldn't be a particularly challenging task, but I'm interested to know if people's perceptions actually reflect reality.< / p >
< p > The data we'll use comes from < a href = https://forecast.io target = _blank rel = "noopener noreferrer" > forecast.io< / a > , since they can give us a cloud cover percentage. I've gone ahead and retrieved the data to a pickle file, and included the < a href = #Generating-the-Forecast-file > code that was used to generate it< / a > . First up: What was the average cloud cover in North Carolina during August - November, and how many days were cloudy? We're going to assume that a "cloudy" day is defined as any day in which the cloud cover is above 50%.< / p >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > city_forecasts < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pickle< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > load< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token builtin" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > open< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'city_forecasts.p'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'rb'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > forecast_df < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > DataFrame< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > from_dict< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > city_forecasts< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < br > < / span > < / code > < / pre > < div class = buttonGroup__atx > < button type = button aria-label = "Copy code to clipboard" title = Copy class = clean-btn > < span class = copyButtonIcons_eSgA aria-hidden = true > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonIcon_y97N > < path fill = currentColor d = "M19,21H8V7H19M19,5H8A2,2 0 0,0 6,7V21A2,2 0 0,0 8,23H19A2,2 0 0,0 21,21V7A2,2 0 0,0 19,5M16,1H4A2,2 0 0,0 2,3V17H4V3H16V1Z" / > < / svg > < svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" class = copyButtonSuccessIcon_LjdS > < path fill = currentColor d = M21,7L9,19L3.5,13.5L4.91,12.09L9,16.17L19.59,5.59L21,7Z / > < / svg > < / span > < / button > < / div > < / div > < / div >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > cary_forecast < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > forecast_df< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > [< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'cary'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ]< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > years < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token builtin" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > range< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1990< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 2016< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > months < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token builtin" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > range< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 7< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 12< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > months_str < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > [< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'July'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'August'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'September'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'October'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'November'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ]< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" style = display:inline-block > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > def< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token function" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > safe_cover< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > frame< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 3
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly average cloud cover chart" src = /assets/images/1-0d5e8450555296218deb0517b80440f3.png width = 600 height = 600 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > As we can see from the chart above, on the whole the monthly average cloud cover has been generally trending down over time. The average cloud cover is also lower than it was last year - it seems people are mostly just complaining. There are some data issues that start in 2012 that we need to be aware of - the cloud cover percentage doesn't exist for all days. Even so, the data that we have seems to reflect the wider trend, so we'll assume for now that the missing data doesn't skew our results.< / p >
< p > There's one more metric we want to check though - how many cloudy days were there? This is probably a better gauge of sentiment than the average monthly cover.< / p >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > def< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token function" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > monthly_cloudy_days< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > dates < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > DatetimeIndex< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > start< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 12< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > end< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > +< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 12< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > freq< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'D'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > closed< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'left'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span cla
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly cloudy days chart" src = /assets/images/2-062e1e47a07f200ff3b1531a02812bc7.png width = 600 height = 600 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly cloud cover samples chart" src = /assets/images/3-eea635f8cfe4a12ae649ceb6c984e0cd.png width = 600 height = 300 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > On the whole, the number of cloudy days seems to reflect the trend with average cloud cover - it's actually becoming more sunny as time progresses. That said, we need to be careful in how we view this number - because there weren't as many samples in 2015 as previous years, the number of days can get thrown off. In context though, even if most days not recorded were in fact cloudy, the overall count for 2015 would still be lower than previous years.< / p >
< p > In addition to checking cloud cover, I wanted to check precipitation data as well - what is the average precipitation chance over a month, and how many days during a month is rain likely? The thinking is that days with a high-precipitation chance will also be days in which it is cloudy or depressing.< / p >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > def< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token function" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > safe_precip< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > frame< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > if< / span > < span class = "token plain" > frame < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > and< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'precipProbability'< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > in< / span > < span class = "token plain" > frame< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > return< / span > < span class = "token plain" > frame< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > [< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'precipProbability'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ]< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > else< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > return< / span > < span class = "token plain" > np< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > NaN< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" style = display:inline-block > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > def< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token function" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > monthly_avg_precip< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > dates < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > DatetimeIndex< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > start< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span c
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly average precipitation chance chart" src = /assets/images/4-b4c3dbfa10b1997706bc271ca71e2ff5.png width = 600 height = 600 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > As we can see from the chart, the average chance of precipitation over a month more or less stays within a band of 0 - .1 for all months over all years. This is further evidence that the past few months are no more cloudy or rainy than previous years. Like the cloud cover though, we still want to get a count of all the rainy days, in addition to the average chance. We'll define a "rainy day" as any day in which the chance of rain is greater than 25%.< / p >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > def< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token function" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > monthly_rainy_days< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > :< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > dates < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > .< / span > < span class = "token plain" > DatetimeIndex< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > start< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 12< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > end< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token plain" > year< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > month < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > +< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 1< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 12< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > freq< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'D'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token plain" > closed< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token string" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > 'left'< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span clas
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly rainy days chart" src = /assets/images/5-8f10acd82b2f025abe57cb93d435a25f.png width = 600 height = 600 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > < img decoding = async loading = lazy alt = "Monthly rainy days samples chart" src = /assets/images/6-456ca1125f48947cf3c1c13722af95a0.png width = 600 height = 300 class = img_ev3q > < / p >
< p > After trying to find the number of days that are rainy, we can see that November hit its max value for rainy days in 2015. However, that value is 6, as compared to a previous maximum of 5. While it is a new record, the value isn't actually all that different. And for other months, the values are mostly in-line with the averages.< / p >
< h1 > Summary and Conclusions< / h1 >
< p > After having looked at forecast data for Cary, it appears that the months of July - November this year in terms of weather were at worst on par with prior years, if not slightly more sunny. This seems to be a case of confirmation bias: someone complains about a string of cloudy or rainy days, and suddenly you start noticing them more.< / p >
< p > While this analysis doesn't take into account other areas of North Carolina, my initial guess would be to assume that other areas also will show similar results: nothing interesting is happening. Maybe that will be for another blog post later!< / p >
< p > Coming soon: I'll compare rain/cloud conditions in North Carolina to some other places in the U.S.!< / p >
< h1 > Generating the Forecast file< / h1 >
< p > The following code was generates the file that was used throughout the blog post. Please note that I'm retrieving data for other cities to use in a future blog post, only Cary data was used for this post.< / p >
< div class = "language-python codeBlockContainer_Ckt0 theme-code-block" style = "--prism-background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);--prism-color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < div class = codeBlockContent_biex > < pre tabindex = 0 class = "prism-code language-python codeBlock_bY9V thin-scrollbar" style = "background-color:hsl(230, 1%, 98%);color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < code class = codeBlockLines_e6Vv > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pandas < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > as< / span > < span class = "token plain" > pd< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > from< / span > < span class = "token plain" > functools < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token builtin" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > reduce< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > requests< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > from< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime < / span > < span class = "token keyword" style = "color:hsl(301, 63%, 40%)" > import< / span > < span class = "token plain" > datetime< / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" style = display:inline-block > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token comment" style = "color:hsl(230, 4%, 64%)" > # Coordinate data from http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > cary_loc < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 35.79154< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > -< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 78.781117< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > nyc_loc < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 40.78306< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > -< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 73.971249< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "color:hsl(230, 8%, 24%)" > < span class = "token plain" > seattle_loc < / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > =< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > (< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 47.60621< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > ,< / span > < span class = "token operator" style = "color:hsl(221, 87%, 60%)" > -< / span > < span class = "token number" style = "color:hsl(35, 99%, 36%)" > 122.332071< / span > < span class = "token punctuation" style = "color:hsl(119, 34%, 47%)" > )< / span > < span class = "token plain" > < / span > < br > < / span > < span class = token-line style = "colo
