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Fix an issue with how quarters were calculated

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Ended up throwing off the final estimate by 6 quarters.
This commit is contained in:
Bradlee Speice 2016-04-06 20:41:16 -04:00
parent f685c2ce5d
commit a9039d5269
1 changed files with 16 additions and 16 deletions
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32
content/notebooks/2016-4-6-tick-tock....ipynb
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@ -60,7 +60,7 @@
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@ -389,7 +389,7 @@
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@ -398,7 +398,7 @@
"name": "stdout", "name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream", "output_type": "stream",
"text": [ "text": [
"Quarters left starting 2068: 2\n", "Quarters left starting 2068: 8\n",
"Remaining heartbeats after that: 4760716\n" "Remaining heartbeats after that: 4760716\n"
] ]
} }
@ -407,7 +407,7 @@
"remaining_leap = remaining_4y - leap_day_count\n", "remaining_leap = remaining_4y - leap_day_count\n",
"# Ignore leap day in the data set\n", "# Ignore leap day in the data set\n",
"heartbeats_quarter = hr_df_full[(hr_df_full.index.month != 2) &\n", "heartbeats_quarter = hr_df_full[(hr_df_full.index.month != 2) &\n",
" (hr_df_full.index.day != 29)]['value'].sum() * 4\n", " (hr_df_full.index.day != 29)]['value'].sum()\n",
"quarters_left = remaining_leap // heartbeats_quarter\n", "quarters_left = remaining_leap // heartbeats_quarter\n",
"remaining_year = remaining_leap - quarters_left * heartbeats_quarter\n", "remaining_year = remaining_leap - quarters_left * heartbeats_quarter\n",
"\n", "\n",
@ -419,12 +419,12 @@
"cell_type": "markdown", "cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},
"source": [ "source": [
"So, that analysis gets me through the 2<sup>nd</sup> quarter in 2068, specifically to June 1<sup>st</sup>, 2068. Final step, using that minute estimate to figure out how many minutes past that I'm predicted to have:" "So, that analysis gets me through until January 1<sup>st</sup> 2070. Final step, using that minute estimate to figure out how many minutes past that I'm predicted to have:"
] ]
}, },
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@ -432,10 +432,10 @@
{ {
"data": { "data": {
"text/plain": [ "text/plain": [
"datetime.datetime(2069, 8, 23, 5, 28)" "datetime.datetime(2070, 2, 23, 5, 28)"
] ]
}, },
"execution_count": 14, "execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result" "output_type": "execute_result"
} }
@ -443,7 +443,7 @@
"source": [ "source": [
"from datetime import timedelta\n", "from datetime import timedelta\n",
"\n", "\n",
"base = datetime(2068, 7, 1)\n", "base = datetime(2070, 1, 1)\n",
"minutes_left = remaining_year // minute_mean\n", "minutes_left = remaining_year // minute_mean\n",
"\n", "\n",
"kaput = timedelta(minutes=minutes_left)\n", "kaput = timedelta(minutes=minutes_left)\n",
@ -454,11 +454,11 @@
"cell_type": "markdown", "cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},
"source": [ "source": [
"According to this, I've got until August 23<sup>rd</sup>, 2069 at 5:28 PM in the evening before my heart gives out.\n", "According to this, I've got until February 23<sup>rd</sup>, 2070 at 5:28 PM in the evening before my heart gives out.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"# Summary\n", "# Summary\n",
"\n", "\n",
"Well, that's kind of a creepy date to know. As I said at the top though, **this number is totally useless in any medical context**. It ignores the rate at which we continue to get better at making people live longer, and is extrapolating from 3 months' worth of data the rest of my life.\n", "Well, that's kind of a creepy date to know. As I said at the top though, **this number is totally useless in any medical context**. It ignores the rate at which we continue to get better at making people live longer, and is extrapolating from 3 months' worth of data the rest of my life. Additionally, throughout my time developing this post I made many minor mistakes. I think they're all fixed now, but it's easy to mix a number up here or there and the analysis gets thrown off by a couple years.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"Even still, I think philosophically humans have a desire to know how much time we have left in the world. [Man is but a breath](https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+144&version=ESV), and it's scary to think just how quickly that date may be coming up. This analysis asks an important question though: what are you going to do with the time you have left?\n", "Even still, I think philosophically humans have a desire to know how much time we have left in the world. [Man is but a breath](https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=psalm+144&version=ESV), and it's scary to think just how quickly that date may be coming up. This analysis asks an important question though: what are you going to do with the time you have left?\n",
"\n", "\n",
@ -468,21 +468,21 @@
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